NorCal Teams at Surf Cup

Discussion in 'NorCal Scene' started by Derek Mays, Jul 17, 2018.

  1. Derek Mays

    Derek Mays New Member

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    When was the last time a NorCal team has won the Super Black division at Surf Cup? Which teams do you think have a shot at winning it this year?
  2. zen

    zen New Member

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    MVLA Barcelona 2004 ECNL team won Super Black in summer 2016 and 2017. They are in Silverlakes this year. I'm not familiar enough with the younger teams to even guess, but it's always great to have Norcal represented.
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  3. Meat Comes First

    Meat Comes First Member

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    It is getting to tougher to even figure out which division is tops at Surf now. They have added DA Super Black/White, seemingly, above Super Black at some ages. Too many divisions now...look at U14 girls as an example. It used to be that only the top teams went to Surf and now anyone with a pulse can get it although the top divisions still have very good teams...just doesn't mean much to say your team went to Surf anymore.

    As far as good younger teams from NorCal, the U13 (06s) San Juan team seems pretty stout but I don't know a lot of the teams either.
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  4. dk_b

    dk_b Well-Known Member

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    It can also be tough to use terms for the various divisions - the "Super Black" only came about in 2016 - and even the multiple division format was limited until the Oceanside fields came online (2015?). "Back in the day" when it was "the best of the best", at the younger (through U15) ages, the format was usually only one division with the older divisions (U16+) having multiple divisions (called, pretty consistently I think, "Super" and "Gold")
  5. LivingTheDream

    LivingTheDream Member

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    There’s no such thing as “Best of the Best” w so many brackets / divisions and diluted showcases -going on the same time.
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  6. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    Yeah Norcal teams won both the DA group (Quakes) and Super Black (MVLA) last year.

    While there are ton of teams it seems the old "going to Surf" is now playing in top DA or Super Black group this year at the respective age group*

    * Though some Super Black groups are not as competitive as the DA groups and vice versa so even that is a bit watered down.

    Clearly winning anything other than those groups cannot be "winning Surf"

    Silver lakes seems like even more watered down than Surf when I looked across a few groups.

    Also for DA players they were just in San Diego 4 weeks earlier (with free parking =) )

    Last I counted there were 24 05 girls Norcal teams playing in Surf this year... That seems like a crazy high number. Need to back and double check
  7. EastBaySoccer

    EastBaySoccer Member

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    MrSmith - did I read the 05 DA brackets correctly - no San Diego Surf? Isn't this their tournament?
  8. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    They were in it... hmmm... when schedules changed they disappeared but their ENCL is in it. So no idea. Their U15 DA is in it.

    I might search around the Socal boards and see if they know anything
  9. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    Okay so what Norcal teams are in the 05 girls bracket (well there really are 24 Norcal teams out of 72 total and this is just 05s)

    Code:
    Team                                  Group        YSR     Group YSR   Delta
    SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES USSDA GU14       DA Black     34.67   34.0        0.69
    CALIFORNIA THORNS USSDA GU14          DA Black     33.25   33.74      -0.49
    LAMORINDA SC USSDA GU14               DA White     31.48   33.2       -1.76
    PLACER UNITED USSDA GU14              DA White     33.45   33.2        0.22
    SAN JUAN SC SPIRITS 05 ECNL           Super Black  33.75   31.5        2.25
    WEST COAST SOCCER WILD KATZ 05        Super Black  33.91   33.4        0.50
    CALIFORNIA ODYSSEY SC 05GR1 TOROSSIAN Super Black  33.23   32.5        0.68
    DIABLO FC 05G PREMIER                 Super Black  31.19   32.5       -1.36
    DAVIS LEGACY 05 RED                   Super Black  32.51   33.1       -0.64
    PLEASANTON RAGE 05 ECNL               Super Black  33.90   33.1        0.80
    BLUES FC 05G NAVY                     Super White  32.68   32.4        0.29
    DIABLO FC 05G BLUE                    Super White      ?      ?           ?
    SANTA ROSA UNITED ECNL 05G            Super White  33.02   33.2       -0.21
    CALIFORNIA COUGARS                    Super White  32.20   31.9        0.26
    CLOVIS CROSSFIRE 05G SALINAS          Super White  31.21   31.9       -0.73
    MARIN FC G05BLUE                      Super White  31.17   32.0       -0.86
    MCS ECFC LEONCITAS 05G                Super White  31.60   32.0       -0.43
    WALNUT CREEK 05G BLUE                 Black        29.20                     
    BLACKHAWKS SC 05G RM                  Black        29.86                     
    MVLA 05G UNITED WHITE                 Black        30.09                     
    EAST BAY UNITED - BAY OAKS 05G GOLD   Black        29.67                     
    PENINSULA SC CRUSH BLUE 05G           White        30.01                     
    PALO ALTO SC 05G BLUE                 White        29.70                     
    SANTA CLARA SPORTING 05G GREEN        White        29.84
    This is using youth soccer rankings and shows the Norcal team along with the average rating for the group and how far above and below. Note, If there is one stinker of a team then the average is not a good representation (San Juan is very closely matched with Socal Academy but Texans West is not rated well (they are not a great team) thus it looks like a cake walk but in reality maybe tougher test, but likely they still win the group).

    Maybe more interesting is to say what is the highest rated group (best of the best)?
    DA Black group A has the highest overall average YSR score and all the teams are rated within in a goal of each other so the Quakes will have a dog fight on their hands. Black DA group B has the two highest rated teams in the event which is bad news for Thorns as they are not one of those two teams and they have to play them in group play. So DA Black seems like the best 05 group going into the competition.

    So which Norcal has the best chance? (I ignored Black and White as I do not know those teams) I like...
    DA Black- Quakes... If they play well they can get a group stage win and then they have to beat a very tough Socal Blues or Albion. Possible.
    Super Black- San Juan and Pleasanton to win their group (West Coast has to beat Sting which is going to be tough) and then either could win because all but Sting of the really tough teams are playing in the DA bracket, even Heat who is very good is playing in a DA group.

    So best chance for Norcal to win I am guessing is DA Black with Quakes or possibly even better, based opponents, San Juan in Super Black (The toughest opponent, Sting, is a goal worse rated compared to So Cal Blues and was beaten by a Norcal team last year, man would they be pissed to lose again to a Norcal team... go San Juan!!!).

    My 2 cents... I am very sure it will not play out this way but fun to speculate.

    Sorry forgot to add... this is all a crap shoot as teams change, YSR is slow to absorb those changes. If any of these teams lost or gained critical players the whole thing is out to lunch. Again fun to speculate. I suspect it will still be those teams in the fight (One bad game for anyone would put them out though)
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    Last edited: Jul 18, 2018
  10. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    The 06s are a bit different...

    Code:
    SAN JUAN SC SPIRITS 06 ECNL            Super Black
    MVLA 06G ROMA BLUE                     Super Black
    AJAX UNITED 06G GREEN                  Super White
    SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES PRE-DA 06         Super White
    ROCKLIN FC 06G NAVY                    Super White
    BLACKHAWKS SC 06G SKY                  Super White
    PALO ALTO SC 06G BLUE                  Black
    FOLSOM LAKE EARTHQUAKES PREMIER '06G   Black
    WALNUT CREEK 06G BLUE                  Black
    SANTA ROSA UNITED 06G GOLD             Black
    CLOVIS CROSSFIRE 06G FRANKLIN          White
    MVLA 06G ROMA WHITE                    White
    MCS ECFC LEONCITAS 06G                 White
    SAN CARLOS UNITED SC 06G CANARIES BLUE White
    PALO ALTO SC 06G BLACK                 White
    SANTA CLARA SPORTING 06G GREEN         White
    Only 2 teams in the Super Black group (the rest in lower level groups) and one of them is the highest rated team in YSR, San Juan. They will have a dog fight as 7 of the top 10 rate 06 teams are in the Super Black group. This feels like old school Surf Cup, with all the top teams in one pot. The top teams are very closely matched so it is anyone's game to lose or win (well it IS Surf's event and they do actually pay the refs... hmmmmm).

    Toughest challenge for San Juan will be So Cal Blues Holley who is in their group and within about 1/2 goal of San Juan rating.

    For Norcal San Juan is the clear favorite in the 06 group.

    * MVLA 06 is a good team but is about 2 goals short of the top teams (everything equal they would be predicted to lose by 2 goals to the very top teams) and I am not sure can be the giant slayer... Man but that would be a fun outcome and no games have been played so they have the same shot as everyone else. =)
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    Last edited: Jul 18, 2018
  11. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    For the U15s we see Norcal has 12 of 50 teams with half of the Norcal teams in the DA or Super Black group

    Code:
    LAMORINDA SC USSDA GU15              DA               33.03
    SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES USSDA GU15      DA               35.85
    DAVIS LEGACY 04 RED                  Super Black      33.41
    MARIN FC G04 BLUE                    Super Black      35.31
    SANTA ROSA UNITED 04G ECNL           Super Black      34.94
    CLOVIS CROSSFIRE 04G BLUE            Super Black      35.43
    BLUES FC 04G NPL                     Super White      33.44
    SANTA CLARA SPORTING 04G GREEN       Super White      32.69
    WALNUT CREEK 04G BLUE                Super White      33.12
    FOLSOM LAKE EARTHQUAKES PREMIER '04G Super White      32.83
    STAR ACADEMY FC 04G I                Black            33.08
    PALO ALTO SC 04G BLUE                Black            33.31
    DA should be interesting... Will it be win two or play Burlingame to advance like last year (wait... oops, there is no Burlingame in the DA group, but will some other team be that team?) If folks have not looked the reason that was said is because the teams play two games, against two randomly selected opponents in the 10 team bracket and then the top 4 go on to semi-finals and finals. So really a crap shoot on who you play and how good they are.

    Note on YSR... Youth Soccer Rankings seems to not pick up all the DA games and some DA teams are not listed thus its utility gets much worse starting at the U15 age group. So I would not trust those numbers so much.

    Both the top DA team (Quakes) and the top Super Black teams (Clovis, Davis or Marin) have reasonable chances. I would pick Quakes to face Surf in DA final or semifinal (whatever the points work out and the winner winning the group). The Super Black is a toss up for Norcal teams but I think Marin has the easier group (that would be a SWAG... scientific wild ass guess) so they would be my pick to move on in Super Black and have a chance to win the group.

    Oh, what group is best of the best??? Since teams like San Juan and MVLA (top ECNL teams) are not here and Surf and Quakes are here. The nod has to go to the DA group, though not every team is a top U15 team in that group either.
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    Last edited: Jul 18, 2018
  12. TicTacToe

    TicTacToe New Member

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    I would say MVLA 04's if they were playing at Surf, but they're not. Second would be San Juan 06's.

    As far as the 05's go in DA Earthquakes vs. Blues with my guess being Blues winning.

    For 05's Super Black seems like some strong NorCal Teams. San Juan, Pleasanton Rage, West Coast, Davis, and Cal Odyssey.

    From the rankings you posted looks pretty tight.
    West Coast - 33.91
    Pleasanton Rage - 33.90
    San Juan - 33.75
    Cal Odyssey - 33.23
    Davis - 32.51

    All within a goal to goal and half. How accurate are the youth soccer rankings?
    I'm picking in Bracket A - San Juan, Bracket B - West Coast, but maybe Sting, Bracket C - Cal Odyssey or Crossfire, and Bracket D - Pleasanton Rage.

    As I said in the 05 group that would be crazy if it was an all NorCal Semifinals. Then it would be San Juan vs. Pleasanton Rage which would be a great, crazy game I think. And in the other Semifinal West Coast vs. Cal Odyssey. I'm thinking West Coast in the finals vs. San Juan/Pleasanton Rage winner. Dare I say San Juan beats Pleasanton Rage in PK's? Hmmm too many scenarios. Which teams are stronger this year, and which teams are not as strong. I think that will be the telling point. ;)
  13. kickingandscreaming

    kickingandscreaming Active Member

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    If you look at the 04 (U15) DA schedule, you'll notice a "DA Placeholder". My guess is that they aren't holding out for a team to decide to come 8 days before the tournament. Surf will take the core of their '05 team and maybe add a few '04s who weren't going to play with the '04 DA team and complete the '04 DA bracket with that team.
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  14. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    Ahhh, thus the drop out from the 05 DA bracket... Makes sense. =)
  15. kickingandscreaming

    kickingandscreaming Active Member

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    I guessed wrong. The '04 Bracket has been filled out with the San Diego Strikers '04 Premier. The '05 Surf Team is in Frisco Texas participating in the USYS National Championships - same as their '04 team did last summer. Their '04 team won that event last year. They returned home and most girls participated in the final two days of the '04 DA Surf Cup Bracket - on no rest.
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  16. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    Last year surf had their second string players, so to speak, play the first two games and them their top players came in and played those last two games. They even chanted "national champions" (USYS, which is the dominate organizing body in socal and texas, champions to be clear) before their last games... then they lost. =)

    This year no 05 DA team in the DA black group so will not see the same pattern. Will have to wait for them to come up and play the Earthquakes and Thorns in San Jose on September 29th and 30th respectively to see how the Norcal teams stack up against Surf's top group (who are definitely extremely good).
  17. Nocalsoccer

    Nocalsoccer Member

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    Clearly your on top of things with these rankings. Too be honest though ranking really don't mean much when you can email YRS with a new ID or use a old ID saying your team is really good and you've done this or that so YSR making your rankings hire than it really should be. If you win games then sure you deserve every reward possible but you should have to work for it at not by emailing YSR. WC plays small tournaments and dominate to bolster there rankings so there's no good formula. Keep up the good work buddy managing 04/05's. Its a shame that Surf's not the Best of the Best anymore.
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  18. Nocalsoccer

    Nocalsoccer Member

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    MVLA 04's would win everything. They have 14/15 Studs. No other team has that many strong horses in one age group.
  19. Nocalsoccer

    Nocalsoccer Member

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    As far as the 05's go in DA Earthquakes vs. Blues? Not so sure about that. Some Blues parents on the Socal board were saying Blue lost to Thorns 0-2 a few months ago but I don't see that in YSR - Strange. Quakes have the easier bracket which works to there advantage. Should be a good one though!!
  20. MrSmith

    MrSmith Member

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    Absolutely agree. In lieu of some other better rankings (got soccer, ugh) for me YSR gives me some ideas especially for teams I do not know. I do look at actual results in some cases but the good news is that whether you create a new team or not, YSR is simply some math on your scores so it basically has one opinion of where your team stands which is much better than anything else.

    I will say YSR has (in my mind) much too long tail for youth soccer (which I said already) I would have results age out over a year or maybe 18 months maybe even 9 months. Teams with lots of history really do not react much to a significant change in players or results (maybe a reason team that are improving reset their account... the team changed and thus we want a do over). Also goals likely do not scale linearly so blow outs count more than they should.

    *** I will say that so far my prediction is holding (given only one group has played so much to go on)... U15 Surf and Quakes are the only two undefeated teams (that is after Quakes losing 3 top players to U14 GNT call up days before the event) and "seem" be heading for a meeting in the finals if they can get by their semi-final opponent.

    and Norcal... what's up with the "No thanks". pretty harsh response bud for providing some info to actually provoke a bit of discussion on this board (which is much needed). =)

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